Erikson and Wlezien forecast Obama will get about 53% of the vote with approximately 2/3 chance of winning

August 2nd, 2008, by Andrew

To follow up on the previous entry on McCain and Obama’s chances, here’s Bob Erikson and Chris Wlezien’s 2008 forecast based on economic conditions and the polls. They write:

On the eve of the election, the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. Earlier in the election year, the polls off much less information about what will happen on Election Day. The polls capture preferences to the moment and do not—because they cannot—anticipate how preferences will evolve in the future, as the campaign unfolds. Various things ultimately impact on the final vote. The standing of the sitting president is important. The economy is too. Both can change as the election cycle evolves. To make matters worse, late-arriving economic shocks have a bigger impact on the electoral verdict than those that arrive earlier. This complicates forecasting the vote well in advance. Our [Erikson and Wlezien's] solution to the problem of early forecasting has been to turn to the index of leading economic indicators. In previous papers we have shown that the growth in these indicators through the Spring of the election year—quarter 13 of the election cycle—is a strong predictor of the vote.

They fit the model to past election sand go on to plug in some numbers to get a point prediction with uncertainty.

The paper will appear in the journal PS (in the same special issue that will contain my article with Kastellec and Chandler).

Similar Posts:

• Florida or Ohio? Forecasting Presidential State Outcomes Using Reverse Random Walks
• Predicting the election outcome months ahead of time: discussion and link to revised paper with Kari Lock
• The nonpuzzle of the close election polls
• “Mean reversion” and “random walk” models of campaign effects
• Popular vote and electoral college

Entry Filed under: Elections